Champions or relegation? What will happen to Man City as they prepare to kick off new Premier League season

WITH the new Premier League season just around the corner, the question is who can stop Manchester City winning a fifth straight title?

Arsenal will be quietly confident after taking Pep Guardiola’s men to the final day in a gripping race last season.

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Are Manchester City going to make it five Premier League titles in a row?[/caption]

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Or will Pep Guardiola’s side suffer disaster[/caption]

New Kop chief Arne Slot will hope to provide as much of a headache for City as his predecessor Jurgen Klopp often did.

And can Manchester United use their FA Cup win over the neighbours as a springboard for a tilt at the biggest prize.

Meanwhile fans of Aston Villa, Chelsea, Tottenham and Newcastle will be dreaming of seeing their team mount a challenge.

City will be favourites of course – yet there is one elephant in the room that threatens to put the skids under the Etihad giants.

The hearing into the 115 charges of breaking financial fair play regulations they were hit with by the Premier League back in February 2023 is expected to start later this year.

It could be that a verdict is finally known before the new campaign is over in May – and all their rivals are watching with interest.

Here Sunsport’s MARTIN LIPTON and MARTIN BLACKBURN discuss what the next few months could hold with Head of Sport SHAUN CUSTIS.

Custis: So the big question – will there be a resolution this season?

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Lipton: Yes…. probably! We know the case will start to be dealt with in October or November.

It will take at least a month to go through the evidence. So I suspect around March, April time, we will get a result. But that’s where it starts to get tricky.

Custis: Why is that?

Lipton: If the result is in City’s favour, that’s the end of the matter. They will be cleared. They will have no punishment to face.

But if City are found guilty, these will be the heaviest penalties ever imposed by the Premier League.

I suspect if they are found guilty, they will be expelled from the league or given a massive points deduction and a huge fine so that they’re not in the Premier League next season.

But of course, City, having spent this much money on lawyers to get to this point, are not just going to say, ‘OK, fair cop, that’s all right’ and take their punishment. They will appeal – but obviously that will take months.

If you look at Everton last year and Nottingham Forest, those point deductions were put in place pending an appeal.

The new season officially starts at the summer meeting in July when the 20 clubs gather. And if City aren’t there, they can’t play.

So unless the tribunal puts in a suspension of the penalty pending an appeal, City will not be able to be in the Premier League next year, even if they subsequently win their case. So it’s a bit messy even then.

Custis: Martin Blackburn – you’ve been on tour with City this summer – is it being discussed by officials and hanging over their heads or is it business as usual?

Blackburn: “It’s very much business as usual as far as City are concerned, they are going about their dealings in the transfer market and planning for the future as normal.

They are supremely confident that they’re not going to be relegated. Whether there’s any sort of punishment at all, we wait and see.

But there’s certainly no worries in their minds that they’re going to end up in the Championship or even lower in 12 months’ time.

They are busy planning for a season which ends with the Club World Cup in America next summer.

And of course the City Football Group have all these clubs around the world and they are operating as normal too.

Custis: You look at the 115 charges, you see 54 are failure to provide accurate financial information, 14 failure to provide accurate details for player and manager payments, failure to comply with UEFA rules, breaching Premier League PSR rules. It’s quite a rap sheet,

Blackburn: It is and this is why it’s taking so long. The Everton and Nottingham Forest cases were fairly open and shut – they spent too much and it was clear. These are much more nuanced.

There’s a lot more things that need to be covered on both sides and at the moment there will be possibly millions of pieces of paper being passed around between the two sides.

It’s going to be a long process – even when the hearing starts. So nobody should hold their breath for a quick resolution.

Custis: What is the feeling among the other Prem clubs about all this – a lot of people I talk to feel City are dragging it out.

Lipton: The Premier League clubs are out for blood. There’s no question about that.

If they’re found guilty, the expectation and demand will be for huge penalties.

What’s really interesting is that the tribunal could order compensation to be paid by City to other clubs.

If you look back at the Everton one, there were four clubs who were allowed to make a claim for compensation – and chose not to – possibly because most of them have been at it themselves, as we see.

Custis: Allegedly, Your Honour.

Lipton: Well, Forest got punished and Leicester have been charged. So that’s two of them.

I suspect that if they are found guilty, there will be no retrospective punishments for City.

And the main reason for that, above all, is actually sort of an image one.

The single most iconic moment in the history of the Premier League will not have existed if City face a retrospective punishment for that season.

The Aguero goal didn’t mean anything because they didn’t win the league because they were three points or whatever less, and United won the league.

So I think that any punishment would be a single, one off, huge penalty.

Custis: What do you think Pep Guardiola’s attitude is to it all right now?

Blackburn: Pep’s always been the same right from when the charges came – which amazingly is 18 months ago now.

He gave this outstanding press conference the Friday after where he spoke really well.

He talked about how much he loves City – as you’d expect after all this time there and all his mates working around him.

He came out swinging and said that he will not be moving from his seat until this case is resolved and City have been cleared.

Interestingly his contract is up next summer so whether those two things will align and the verdict will come out around the same time – we’ll see.

Pep says he’s been assured by those above him that City are going to be cleared.

He has also said in the past that he’s been shown evidence, which makes him sure that they are going to be cleared.

Custis: When UEFA went after them, City ultimately won their case. What is the difference?

How were they able to do that – and is that why they feel emboldened in this case as well?

‘CRIMINAL CASE’

Lipton: Different legal requirements, different tribunal. In the case of the UEFA situation, it went to the Court of Arbitration of Sport and it was a 2-1 majority verdict in City’s favour.

It wasn’t as if it was a whitewash and all three judges ruled against it. A lot of the ruling was on the basis of the time limitations on UEFA rules about when you’re allowed to prosecute them. There are no time bars in Premier League rules.

All Premier League tribunals are assessed on a civil bar, not a criminal one. So it isn’t beyond reasonable doubt as it would be in a criminal case. It’s on balance of probabilities, ie who do you believe the most. That does change the nature of it.

And again, it could be a 2-1 verdict either way, or a 3-0 verdict from these three judges. There won’t be football people on this. This is a legal game.

Custis: But it’ll all be behind closed doors. We won’t be able to know any of the evidence that’s raised.

And at the end of it, somebody will say, well, here’s the judgment. Now you’ve just got to deal with it?

Lipton: Yeah, we will get a verdict when it’s announced. And soon afterwards, if not on the day, we will have the full written reasons.

400 pages later, we’ll still not be able to make head or tail of it!

It will be one of the lengthiest documents you have ever seen, But the only thing that matters will be what’s the verdict on the final page.

Custis: OK, I’m going to put you both on the spot here. What do you think will happen and will it be this season?

Blackburn: I think we will – but it’s a legal process and it has to run its course.

The onus is on the Premier League to prove this one and I think it’s going to be very difficult for them to prove the most serious allegations.

There’s the non co-operation charges – and they might be able to get City on those but that would almost certainly be a fine rather than a points deduction.

Lipton: In a rare moment of unity, I agree! I’m not convinced it’s a case that’s going to be proven.

That doesn’t mean I’m right. And it may be that the lawyers are able to make that case.

I mean people say ‘it’s ok for City because they’ve got David Pannick KC and he’s on £10,000 a day’.

But last time any of us saw him, he was sat next to Boris Johnson and it went really badly for him.

But I just think it’s a really hard sell for the Premier League to get this one over the line just because of the sheer determination by City.

And they’ve got to prove that senior executives at the club, senior executives at the Abu Dhabi government, senior executives at a senior blue chip accountancy firm, etc., etc., knowingly, deliberately and without any question in their heads, contrive to lie. That’s a really big ask.