Donald Trump Will Almost Certainly Unlock A $1.3 Billion "Earnout Bonus" Tomorrow Afternoon

On March 26, not quite a month ago, the technology firm that owns Donald Trump's social media company, Truth Social, went public via SPAC merger. If you have not read our previous coverage on this or other SPAC mergers, all you need to know is that Truth Social went public without having to do an expensive and drawn-out IPO campaign. Instead it became a public company in an instant by combining with an already-public shell company called DWAC. The resulting company is listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol "DJT."

DJT ended its first day as a public company with a price per share of $58. The next day, it ended with a price per share of $66. At that point, the company's market cap was $9 billion. That is a truly stunning number when you consider the fact that in 2023, Truth Social earned a total of $4.1 million in revenue. For perspective, in 2023 Snapchat earned $4.6 billion in revenue. Snapchat's market cap is around $18 billion. So, twice the market cap with a thousand times the revenue.

And while DJT's value has dropped in half since its IPO, the stock price is still high enough that Donald Trump will almost certainly unlock a $1.3 BILLION "Earnout Bonus" tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon.

Heading into Tuesday, Donald Trump already owns around 79 million shares of DJT, roughly 60% of the total shares outstanding. When the company was worth $9 billion, his shares were worth around $5.4 BILLION on paper. At that point, Donald Trump's net worth hit an all-time high of $7 billion, which briefly made him one of the 500 richest people in the world for the first time in his life.

As we mentioned a moment ago, DJT's stock price has cooled in the last month. After topping out at $66 per share on March 27, it dropped down to $23 on April 16. It closed at $35.50 on Monday (the day I'm writing this article), giving the company a market cap of $4.85 billion. At today's price, Donald's 79 million shares are worth around $2.8 billion. Enough to give him an overall net worth of $4.4 billion – a very respectable number, but not quite enough to maintain his rank as one of the world's 500 richest humans.

But there's some very good news happening imminently for Mr. Trump!

According to the terms of his deal that was forged prior to the SPAC merger, if DJT's stock price closes above $17.50 for any 20 days in a 30-day period, Donald Trump will receive 36 million additional shares as an "earnout bonus." Closing at $35.50 on Monday was day #19.

As long as DJT's share price closes above $17.50 on Tuesday, which appears very likely, Donald will receive his 36 million share bonus. If DJT closes at around $35.50, those 36 million new shares will be worth $1.3 billion.

Assuming this all happens, on Tuesday afternoon, Donald Trump will own 115 million shares of DJT. At $35.50 per share, Donald's 115 million shares would be worth $4.1 billion, bringing his net worth up to $6 billion. That SHOULD be enough to reclaim his spot as one of the world's 500 richest people.

There are a few caveats. First off, from what I am able to ascertain, DJT will need to issue 36 million new shares to cover this earnout bonus. That is in line with an SEC filing last week, which stated the company planned to do just that. That news is what sent the share price sinking to $22 on April 16. Is the news of this bonus fully baked in, or will a further drop happen when the shares are actually created? Perhaps most importantly to Mr. Trump, unless he receives a special dispensation from the company, these new 36 million shares will be subject to a six-month lockup period, just like his current 79 million shares. In other words, he can't actually turn any of these shares into cash until sometime in late September or October.