UEFA have made a significant change to the World Cup qualifying draw protocols – and it could spell trouble for England.
New boss Thomas Tuchel could now potentially face multiple Home Nations rivals as he prepares to guide the Three Lions to the World Cup finals in Canada, Mexico and the United States in 2026.
Previously, all Nations League quarter-finalists and play-off teams in Pots 2, 3 and 4 were to be “in priority allocated to groups of four.”
As a result of being fourth in the world rankings, England were placed into Pot 1 with all of the Nations League A quarter-finalists.
Those Nations League quarter-finalists, including Portugal, Germany and France to name a few, were set to placed into a group of four with the play-off teams across Pots 2 – 4.
As Nations League group winners – and having avoided the play-offs – England are likely to be in a five-team group that starts in March.
This means before the rule change, England were to be locked out of playing half of Pot 2 once they were drawn by Pot 1.
But now that’s all changed – and Tuchel‘s side can be drawn against more than one Home Nation rival on December 13.
And while Wales, Scotland and the Republic of Ireland aren’t ranked particularly highly, England will want to avoid any unnecessary derbies.
The tension of the occasion leaves the Three Lions vulnerable to losing points.
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The play-off teams, including Belgium, Scotland and Hungary, can now potentially be in a group of five.
That’s said, England aren’t 100 per cent in a five team group as a matter of certainty – but in the game of chances, it looks like they will be.
What are the World Cup European Qualifying pots?
Pot 1
- Spain – (Nations League Quarter-finalist)
- Germany – (Nations League Quarter-finalist)
- Portugal – (Nations League Quarter-finalist)
- France – (Nations League Quarter-finalist)
- Italy – (Nations League Quarter-finalist)
- Netherlands – (Nations League Quarter-finalist)
- Denmark – (Nations League Quarter-finalist)
- Croatia – (Nations League Quarter-finalist)
- England
- Belgium – (Nations League play-offs)
- Switzerland
- Austria – (Nations League play-offs)
Pot 2
- Ukraine – (Nations League play-offs)
- Sweden – (Nations League play-offs)
- Turkey – (Nations League play-offs)
- Wales
- Hungary – (Nations League play-offs)
- Serbia – (Nations League play-offs)
- Poland
- Greece – (Nations League play-offs)
- Romania – (Nations League play-offs)
- Slovakia – (Nations League play-offs)
- Czech Republic
- Norway
Pot 3
- Scotland – (Nations League play-offs)
- Slovenia – (Nations League play-offs)
- Republic of Ireland – (Nations League play-offs)
- Albania
- North Macedonia
- Georgia – (Nations League play-offs)
- Finland
- Iceland – (Nations League play-offs)
- Northern Ireland
- Montenegro
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Israel
Pot 4
- Bulgaria – (Nations League play-offs)
- Luxembourg – (Nations League play-offs)
- Kosovo – (Nations League play-offs)
- Belarus
- Armenia – (Nations League play-offs)
- Kazakhstan
- Azerbaijan
- Estonia
- Cyprus
- Faroe Islands
- Latvia – (Nations League play-offs)
- Lithuania
Pot 5
- Moldova
- Malta – (Nations League play-offs)
- Andorra
- Gibraltar – (Nations League play-offs)
- Liechtenstein
- San Marino
But the change is potentially bigger for Wales, who won their Nations League group (B4).
Under the old conditions, Wales had to be in a group of five and thought they’d avoided playing a quarter-finalist from Pot 1.
But now, they can be a group of four or five and face the prospect of playing a quarter-finalist.
That means a potential face-off with one of Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Euro winners Spain.
But before, there was a higher chance of Wales drawing Austria or Switzerland from Pot 1 as both didn’t have to be in a group of four.
Wales were also effectively blocked from playing the top two seeds in Pot 3, and three of the top five seeds in Pot 4, who all had to be in a group of four.
Previously, Scotland and Republic Ireland had to be in a group of four as a result of their involvement in the Nations League play-offs.
This is no longer set in stone, but the chances of being in a group of five are very low.
This is because after Pot 1 and 2 there might not be any five-team groups left which can contain a Nations League play-off side.
England's worst-case scenario draw after the change
Worst-case draw
- England
- Norway
- Georgia
- Azerbaijan
- Moldova
Alternative tough draw
- England
- Wales
- Scotland
- Kazakhstan
- Moldova