US-Ukraine ceasefire proposal: What could Russia demand?

Russia has yet to make any response to a 30-day ceasefire proposal agreed by the United States and Ukraine after representatives from both countries engaged in talks in Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah on Tuesday.

National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who attended the Jeddah talks, said during a news conference afterwards: “I will talk to my Russian counterpart in the coming days.”

On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin, clad in military fatigues, visited Kursk for the first time since Ukraine’s incursion last year, hailing Russian war efforts.

But experts say it is unlikely that Russia would accept the US-Ukraine proposal without demands of its own being met.

So what is in the ceasefire proposal and what could Russia push back on?

What are the ceasefire terms agreed by the US and Ukraine?

Following the Jeddah talks, US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy released a joint statement outlining the terms of a ceasefire.

The statement said the two countries had agreed on an “immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire”. It added that as a result, the US has lifted the pause on military aid and intelligence sharing for Ukraine.

The document also stated that the Jeddah discussion underscored the importance of humanitarian efforts during the ceasefire period. These include “the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children”.

However, the proposal makes no mention of sanctions on Russia or security guarantees for Ukraine. Nor does it mention Ukraine withdrawing troops from Russia’s Kursk region.

Trump has previously rejected the idea of the US offering security guarantees, leaving that issue to Ukraine’s European allies.

However, under the proposal agreed between the US and Ukraine, the latter states that it wants its European partners to be “involved in the peace process”. Some of Ukraine’s European allies, such as the United Kingdom and France, are in the process of discussing security guarantees for the country.

On Wednesday, the Kremlin said it would review the details of the proposal from the US before making an assessment.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia would not rush to a decision, Al Jazeera’s Dorsa Jabbari reported from Moscow.

Speaking with Irish Taoiseach Micheal Martin at the White House on Wednesday, Trump said: “Our people are going to Russia right now as we speak. And hopefully we can get a ceasefire from Russia.” Trump added he had received “positive messages” about the ceasefire, but “a positive message means nothing.”

Multiple media outlets have reported that Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, will visit Russia to speak to Putin in the coming days.

How could Russia respond to the ceasefire proposal?

It is unlikely that Russia would accept the ceasefire as it is, multiple analysts say.

“I think [Russia] rejecting the deal will be unwise politically, diplomatically, but accepting it right now as it is, it’s not going to happen,” Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at the defence studies department at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.

Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank, said: “It would be strange and out of character if Russia were to agree to the current proposition without presenting additional demands.”

“Moscow might accept some form of ceasefire, but I don’t see the Kremlin changing its fundamental strategic goal of subjugating Ukraine and having the world accept and validate its brutal aggression,” Mikhail Alexseev, a professor of political science at San Diego State University, told Al Jazeera. “If Russia is seriously interested in a lasting peace, it would quickly agree with the ceasefire and proceed to negotiations on its troop withdrawal from at least some of Ukraine’s occupied territories.”

What could Russia demand in return for a ceasefire?

Lifting of sanctions and security guarantees

Giles said Russia has “every incentive” to press for “permanent restrictions on security guarantees given to Ukraine” and a lifting of sanctions, among other potential demands.

Since the Ukraine war began in 2022, the US and other allies of Ukraine have imposed at least 21,692 sanctions on Russia, targeting individuals, media organisations, the military sector, energy sector, aviation, shipbuilding and telecommunications, among other sectors.

Alexseev said a lifting of sanctions would help Russia “rebuild, regroup, and resume the war when it’s ready and when it sees the attention and resources of other major powers diverted elsewhere”.

Withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Kursk

Another demand Russia could make is for the Kursk region to be cleared of Ukrainian troops, Miron said. On August 6, 2024, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk, seizing territory inside Russia.

Ukraine has since been losing ground in Kursk and the Russian army has announced rapid gains. Valery Gerasimov told Putin during his Wednesday visit that Russian forces had gained 1,100 square km (425 square miles) of Kursk.

Miron added: “Until the ceasefire is implemented and everybody is on the same page, time will pass, which will probably give the Russians the necessary time to at least get Kursk back so that it removes any potential negotiating bonuses for Ukraine.”

US backing for Russia’s demands

“If past performance is any guide, [Russia’s] demands will be backed by the US,” Giles said.

“I don’t think that Ukraine had any sort of way of dictating any rules here. The United States said, ‘This is your choice, you are not a subject any more, you’re an object.’ This is what actually has been demonstrated.”