Why football stars are scoring more penalties.. and the goalkeeper’s cheat code that could turn the tide

VAR was supposed to end the controversy surrounding poor refereeing decisions in football.

Instead, we have seen football slowed down with a myriad of replays and debates rage on the quality of officiating in the division.

The Times

Penalties are being converted at record levels[/caption]

Alamy

So how can goalkeepers tip the balance in their favour again[/caption]

How the Premier League five-year rolling average penalty conversion rate has increased

The introduction of VAR has also led to a notable increase in the award of penalty kicks.

According to Opta Analyst, the second season VAR was introduced saw 125 penalties awarded, or one every three games.

This season has seen the figure stands at its fourth-highest in history, with one spot kick awarded every 3.5 games.

With the increase in penalties being awarded, however, we have also seen penalties converted with record quality from 12 yards – an unprecedented 90 per cent.

Even from last season the five-season rolling average for penalty kicks being converted has increased to a staggering 81.1 per cent, up from 74.8 per cent in the 1996/97 season.

Goalkeepers have been further handicapped by video technology with the new rule that they cannot move off their line until the penalty is struck.

This, combined with outfield players seemingly continuing to take leaps in terms of technical ability and ball striking has seen more penalties being scored.

Despite this there must be something goalkeepers can do to tip the scales back into their favour when facing penalties. Well, yes, there is. The key for goalkeepers though might be to do nothing at all…

Why do goalkeepers dive?

In penalty shootouts at major competitions we often hear commentators say that all of the pressure is on the penalty taker with none on the goalkeeper.

At the top level you expect players to be able to convert from the spot and as such the goalkeepers are not expected to save the shot.

This means that goalkeepers will typically not be blamed by fans, coaches or team-mates for failing to stop the penalty but they will be highly praised should they manage to save one, or more than one.

So, why do goalkeepers dive?

We have seen a huge increase in outfield players adding a delay into their run before they strike the penalty.

They will deliberately stutter or hop as they approach the ball before striking.

Bukayo Saka stutters his run up as a tactic to throw off the goalkeeper

This is intended to force the goalkeeper to move early and if the goalkeeper goes to one side then the player striking the penalty will go the opposite way.

Despite not having the pressure on them, goalkeepers will still dive to their left or right as opposed to staying still in the centre of their goals. 

Here Matheus Cunha stuttered and provoked Chelsea’s Djorde Petrovic into moving before he slotted the ball the opposite way

If they stand still and the penalty goes to the left or the right then there will be an assumption from those watching that the goalkeeper did not do enough.

Though the real reason behind the move is incomplete information.

In this example Andre Onana sells himself early despite there being no run up from Pablo Sarabia

Everton and England goalie Jordan Pickford went viral as cameras caught him looking at info on opposition penalty takers on crib sheets taped to his water bottles.

Analysts at clubs will now spend time breaking down the penalty tendencies of players at their next opposition and goalkeepers will be given that information.

This means that if a goalkeeper knows that their opponent goes to the goalkeepers left a high proportion of the time then diving in that direction is the smart thing to do.

For goalkeepers to start saving more penalties we may well see them make a change to their approach to saving penalties, despite what fans might think.

Should goalkeepers stand still?

Although standing still in the centre of their goal may be against all of their instincts there is an argument that this would increase the chances of goalkeepers making a save from a penalty.

In recent seasons we have seen a notable increase in the amount of players who include stutters or stops in their run as they wait for the goalkeeper to commit.

This season has seen 15 spot kicks aimed down the middle of the goal, 14 of which have been scored.

The conversion rate for these efforts sits at 93.3 per cent, while it the rate drops to 89.1 per cent for the corners.

Last season the rate down the middle stood at 95 per cent while it was 69.6 per cent in the corners, with a total of 35 penalties being taken in the last two seasons.

If goalkeepers can maintain their discipline and not move from the centre of the goal then this will start to put doubt in the head of the player who is taking the penalty.

Here the goalkeeper commits to his right the ball before James Ward Prowse hits his penalty high to the middle

They are essentially trying to wait until the last second before deciding whether to put the penalty to the left or to the right as opposed to making up their mind before they start their run up.

The longer that the goalkeeper takes to move the greater the chance that the taker will start to panic and doubt themselves.

Joao Pedro uses delays to wrong foot the goalkeeper before slotting the ball the other side of the net

Waiting and staying in the centre of the goal would also be more effective for goalkeepers because of the technique and striking of players taking the kick.

If the player in question catches the inside of the post, or even the side netting, with an accurate and well struck shot then there is very little chance that the goalkeeper could have made the save anyway.

Here Ederson holds his central position for a Michael Olise penalty but loses his footing before the taker scores

Increasingly, however, we are seeing penalties that are just played casually into the goal without getting anywhere near the corner of the goal.

If goalkeepers were to remain in a central position then they would have more of a chance to react and save those penalties that are clipped just to either side but not right into the corner of the net.

If the goalkeeper has the composure and conviction to stay in the centre of their goal then they will force the player taking the kick to amend their approach and perhaps overthink what they are going to do with the shot.

Conclusion

There is always a sense that the player taking the penalty has the advantage over the goalkeeper.

And to be fair this should be the case as the defending team has been punished for a foul in their penalty area.

Goalkeepers, however, need to find a way to level the playing field and to put some more doubt into the minds of the players taking the penalty.

We believe that we are going to see more goalkeepers taking the decision to stand and make themselves big in the centre of the goal in order to put doubt back into the minds of the penalty takers.